Gaming the Election: Republican style

Methinks they doth protest too much...

I don't know about you, but something sure seems awfully fishy about the conservative movement's apparent disapproval of the pending nomination of John McCain. Now I realize that movement conservatives have never considered McCain one of their own, but I find it highly dubious that come general election time that they will sit on their hands, or even more ludicrous, endorse Obama, or Clinton over their standard bearer.

There has been much talk in the media about Rush Limbaugh's criticism of McCain, Ann Coulter's offer to campaign for Hillary Clinton, and the Reverend James Dobson's refusal to endorse John McCain. The news yesterday was all about Mitt Romney endorsing McCain, and what a betrayal this was to the "conservative" movement. There is even talk about a third party of evangelical Republicans nominating Mike Huckabee.

Don't bet on it.

If there is one thing Republicans do well, it's win elections. Their ability to marshal an awe-inspiring lock-step legion of voters is truly remarkable, 2008 will be no exception. I know that conditions on the ground look bleak for them, and deservedly so, for all of their abilities to marshal votes, they simply are very poor at governing.

But really, conditions in 08 are not so different from 2004. The war in Iraq rages on, the economy teeters on the brink of collapse, our standing in the world is at an all time low. Pretty fertile ground for Democrats. And yet, in 2004 George Bush not only won the election, but gained 3 million votes over his opponent John Kerry, even with an approval rating below 50%. While there was some controversy about the vote count in Ohio, the popular vote speaks for itself.

Republicans know that a conservative movement candidate in 2008 would be a sure loser. In order to win this election they need a candidate that can appeal to centrist, working class independents, someone who has the appeal of a "maverick" not in lock-step with a base or ideology. It makes no difference that John McCain's voting record reads like a movement conservative, it's his image as a pragmatic bi-partisan common sense based politician that will get all of the play.

Picking the Democratic Nominee.

Therefore, in order to win the general election it is incumbent to get the right opponent. If you believe the conventional wisdom that candidate would be Hillary Clinton. They would have us believe that Clinton, and only Clinton can pull all of the factions of their party together. In fact, it's all they talk about. Now there may be some truth in Clinton's ability to bring them together,but I believe they fear the prospect of running agaist a candidate that attracts so much support from women, Hispanics and working class voters. And the Clinton name absolutely freaks them out.

Republican loving Obamacons

Barack Obama, however, offers a much more attractive opponent. His campaign offers little beyond platitudes, his relative inexperience at the national level offers fertile ground for exploitation in a time of uncertainty, and his base of support includes groups that have been demonized since 1972. They pore over primary returns and see that for all of the energy of his campaign he has failed to attract core Democratic voters, win any of the major Democratic states (save his home state of Illinois) or put away his primary opponent Clinton. They have demonstrated a willingness to cross party lines to vote for Obama in primaries in order to inflate his vote/delegate totals.

And make no mistake, they absolutely love the Obama campaign's efforts to disenfranchise voters in Florida and Michigan, and will remind them over and over again in the general election. They chatter with glee at progressive bloggers recycling their talking points about Hillary Clinton, and the mainstream media's obsessive compulsion to trash Clinton, both Hillary and Bill on a daily basis. Everything is lining up precisely the way they hoped it would.

Swift-boating on race

In 2004 Karl Rove took a congressional medal of honor winner, John Kerry, and cast doubt on the veracity of his service record, which many believe sowed doubt both about his character and his service. In 08, It's the Clinton's and their impeccable record on race relations. The attack essentially is not so much that the Clinton's are racists, but that they would use race to win an election. It proved to be quite effective. Race is a sensitive issue in America, but it is especially sensitive in a Democratic primary. It had the effect of moving a large bloc of black voters in Obama's column. Now Republicans will gleefully play the race card in the General election because Blacks don't vote Republican, and the only people they will really turn off are people who won't vote for them anyway. The whole point was to deny HRC a share of that voting bloc.

Conclusions?

John McCain was going to be the Republican nominee from the time he declared for the race. He enjoys widespread media support, has the image of a pragmatic reach across the aisle politician that is also a reliable conservative, and his immigration stance , while not acceptable to most Republicans, will garner much more support among Hispanics than any other GOP candidate. His national security credentials are unimpeachable, and he will appeal to independent male voters. To believe that Republicans will stay home, or cross over party lines or form a third party is absurd. They have their candidate. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, they will have the opponent they want as well