Methinks they doth protest too much...
I don't know about you, but something sure seems awfully fishy about the conservative movement's apparent disapproval of the pending nomination of John McCain. Now I realize that movement conservatives have never considered McCain one of their own, but I find it highly dubious that come general election time that they will sit on their hands, or even more ludicrous, endorse Obama, or Clinton over their standard bearer.
There has been much talk in the media about Rush Limbaugh's criticism of McCain, Ann Coulter's offer to campaign for Hillary Clinton, and the Reverend James Dobson's refusal to endorse John McCain. The news yesterday was all about Mitt Romney endorsing McCain, and what a betrayal this was to the "conservative" movement. There is even talk about a third party of evangelical Republicans nominating Mike Huckabee.
Don't bet on it.
If there is one thing Republicans do well, it's win elections. Their ability to marshal an awe-inspiring lock-step legion of voters is truly remarkable, 2008 will be no exception. I know that conditions on the ground look bleak for them, and deservedly so, for all of their abilities to marshal votes, they simply are very poor at governing.
But really, conditions in 08 are not so different from 2004. The war in Iraq rages on, the economy teeters on the brink of collapse, our standing in the world is at an all time low. Pretty fertile ground for Democrats. And yet, in 2004 George Bush not only won the election, but gained 3 million votes over his opponent John Kerry, even with an approval rating below 50%. While there was some controversy about the vote count in Ohio, the popular vote speaks for itself.
Republicans know that a conservative movement candidate in 2008 would be a sure loser. In order to win this election they need a candidate that can appeal to centrist, working class independents, someone who has the appeal of a "maverick" not in lock-step with a base or ideology. It makes no difference that John McCain's voting record reads like a movement conservative, it's his image as a pragmatic bi-partisan common sense based politician that will get all of the play.
Picking the Democratic Nominee.
Therefore, in order to win the general election it is incumbent to get the right opponent. If you believe the conventional wisdom that candidate would be Hillary Clinton. They would have us believe that Clinton, and only Clinton can pull all of the factions of their party together. In fact, it's all they talk about. Now there may be some truth in Clinton's ability to bring them together,but I believe they fear the prospect of running agaist a candidate that attracts so much support from women, Hispanics and working class voters. And the Clinton name absolutely freaks them out.
Republican loving Obamacons
Barack Obama, however, offers a much more attractive opponent. His campaign offers little beyond platitudes, his relative inexperience at the national level offers fertile ground for exploitation in a time of uncertainty, and his base of support includes groups that have been demonized since 1972. They pore over primary returns and see that for all of the energy of his campaign he has failed to attract core Democratic voters, win any of the major Democratic states (save his home state of Illinois) or put away his primary opponent Clinton. They have demonstrated a willingness to cross party lines to vote for Obama in primaries in order to inflate his vote/delegate totals.
And make no mistake, they absolutely love the Obama campaign's efforts to disenfranchise voters in Florida and Michigan, and will remind them over and over again in the general election. They chatter with glee at progressive bloggers recycling their talking points about Hillary Clinton, and the mainstream media's obsessive compulsion to trash Clinton, both Hillary and Bill on a daily basis. Everything is lining up precisely the way they hoped it would.
Swift-boating on race
In 2004 Karl Rove took a congressional medal of honor winner, John Kerry, and cast doubt on the veracity of his service record, which many believe sowed doubt both about his character and his service. In 08, It's the Clinton's and their impeccable record on race relations. The attack essentially is not so much that the Clinton's are racists, but that they would use race to win an election. It proved to be quite effective. Race is a sensitive issue in America, but it is especially sensitive in a Democratic primary. It had the effect of moving a large bloc of black voters in Obama's column. Now Republicans will gleefully play the race card in the General election because Blacks don't vote Republican, and the only people they will really turn off are people who won't vote for them anyway. The whole point was to deny HRC a share of that voting bloc.
Conclusions?
John McCain was going to be the Republican nominee from the time he declared for the race. He enjoys widespread media support, has the image of a pragmatic reach across the aisle politician that is also a reliable conservative, and his immigration stance , while not acceptable to most Republicans, will garner much more support among Hispanics than any other GOP candidate. His national security credentials are unimpeachable, and he will appeal to independent male voters. To believe that Republicans will stay home, or cross over party lines or form a third party is absurd. They have their candidate. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, they will have the opponent they want as well
Friday, February 15, 2008
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Hillary Clinton for President
I've been a Democrat for 26 years. In fact, its the longest relationship I've ever had with anything except perhaps Atlanta Braves Baseball. Roland Office anyone? The only time the Braves were any damn good, or the Democratic party actually had an occupant in the White House was during the glorious '90's. Pretty much before and after? Just a lot of losing. Take 1988, for example, The Braves posted a 54 win, 106 loss season, and Mike Dukakis lost to George HW Bush 10 states to 40 (426-111) which is a 9 state improvement over Walter Mondale's shellacking by Smilin' Ronnie the conquerer (the Braves by contrast actually went 80-84)in the 1984 election. You have to either be someone who enjoys losing, or have an inordinate amount of faith that the organization will eventually turn itself around.
A lot of us remember the battles of the 90's when Newt the toad led his "revolution" and Ken Starr led his inquisition. We were taught some valuable lessons about power and the lengths and depths that people will go to secure it. We saw a national press try to burnish its credentials as "fair and balanced" by trying to bring down the 42nd President. We saw a sheepish democratic party vaccilate and compromise itself out of power, rather than the have the back of its leader.
In short, the years change, but the script remains the same. Except for the fact that occasionally someone comes along that is able to navigate a simple message through the obsfucation of political enemies and a press that has come to believe that it knows what the people want.
In 1992 that was Bill Clinton. He offered America growth because he believed in people. He believed that people who "worked hard and played by the rules" deserved a place at the table of prosperity that "trickle down" economics would never deliver. He believed that Government should be a partner in not only helping ordinary Americans improve their standard of living, but their quality of life as well.
And we believed in him.
In fact, His support never seriously wavered, even amidst a republican takeover of the Congress, even amidst 6 years of scandal-mongering that ultimately found that his administration was cleanest since the Carter administration. Even amidst an Impeachment proceeding that will go down as one of the most embarrassing spectacles in US political history, that ultimately led to the downfall of his most bitter political rival of the era.
And yet, with all of these forces aligned against he succeeded. Ecnomic growth at all levels of income, budget surpluses, less crime, a stronger military, an optimism about the future not seen before or since. And always, the people stood behind him.
We can argue ad-nauseum about triangulation, impefect trade deals, wonkish incremental policies (school uniforms anyone)but we cannot argue that Bill Clinton left this country in much better shape than it was when he assumed the reigns of power. His policies created a platform for his successor to expand on his basic philisophy that government should work for the people.
Unfortunately the script got rewritten in the 2000 election. We will never know, or understand why Al Gore felt the need to distance himself from Mr Clinton, but we do know that it ultimately cost him the election. By keeping the most popular President since FDR at arms length he gave an election that was his for the taking to the most incompetent, and dangerous man ever to serve the office.
And the result? We find ourselves once again teetering on the edge of economic collapse. The script never changes.
There has been a lot of unfortunate attempts the tarnish the legacy of Bill Clinton in this Presidential season. The desire of many to re-write history in order to score political points is a disturbing trend. It is the sort of thing one expects from the other side. The general thought I suppose is that people have short memories, that the divisivness generated by Republicans and the atavistic press somehow passes for reality. This is dangerous thinking. It is a recipe for disaster in November.
I can understand why its happening. Hillary Clinton is attempting to win her party's nomination, and ultimately the office of President. The script never changes.
Once again we are bombarded by the press with negativity. She's not likeable, she's divisive, she's old, she wears pantsuits! She can't possibly win a general election, people remember the 90's, no one wants to go back there again. And then there's Barack Obama. "He's inspirational" he's "transformational" he looks good in a suit! He wants to bring us together, she wants to drive us further a part.
Republicans for their part assure us that they are licking their chops at the prospect of running against Hillary. Never mind that they can't seem to coalesce around a candidate of their own, or have to run on one of the sorriest records in American History. That they are chain-linked to one of the most corrupt, secretive, morally bankrupt administrations in our collective memory. A Hillary nomination will make people forget all of that?
Don't count on it.
I offer my endorsement today for the Candidacy of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hillary has worked 35 years for the people of this country. She has been a strong advocate for the rights of minorites, women and children. She has served with distinction in the US senate for the past seven years. She is articulate, knowledgeable, and brings a wealth of experience that is unsurpassed by any individual running for President in this cycle. She has been the target of some of the most vicious attacks in long memory.
And yet she endures.
She was left for dead after the Iowa caucus, and yet still remains a frontrunner for her parties nomination. This is no accident. She enjoys the support of the most important demographic in this election, rank and file Democrats, without whom no one can win.
Thee are many among us who realize that those who are set against her are powerful, and they will stop at nothing to deny the American people this great leader. But know this: our support is unwavering. We have seen this movie before, we are neither surprised or deterred. We will not be silent. We take personal the attacks on this great woman because we realize all too well that these are attacks on us as well. Hillary Clinton epitomises the soul of the democratic party, she is an advocate for the people who "work hard and play by the rules" that are left out of the discussion by pundits and candidates alike. She sees us, where they see only abstracts.
Barack Obama is an inspirational speaker who has managed to capture the nation's imagination, and has a brilliant future ahead of him. It is possible to believe that he will one day lead our nation, and I look forward to that day. But this is not his time. His inexperience in a time that will surely test the resolve and leadership of whomever assumes the office leaves too many questions unanswered. We cannot afford to have another President learning on the job, or worse, being controlled by powerful entities that wish to subvert the will of the people to suit their ends. While I believe that he is better than the Republican alternative, this year, at least, that will not be enough.
Our country is in trouble. We sit at the edge of recession, our military is fighting two wars and being destroyed in the process. Our healthcare system is failing us. Government spending is out of control. Government services are collapsing and our justice system has been politicized. Our civil liberties are being subverted in the name of security and our confidence is at an all time low. It will take a President who can marshal all of her powers and experience just to clean this mess up. This is not a year to gamble on hope.
Help us change the script. Help us remind those who would gladly subvert our will that we will not be denied the best America has to offer. Support Hillary Rodham Clinton
A lot of us remember the battles of the 90's when Newt the toad led his "revolution" and Ken Starr led his inquisition. We were taught some valuable lessons about power and the lengths and depths that people will go to secure it. We saw a national press try to burnish its credentials as "fair and balanced" by trying to bring down the 42nd President. We saw a sheepish democratic party vaccilate and compromise itself out of power, rather than the have the back of its leader.
In short, the years change, but the script remains the same. Except for the fact that occasionally someone comes along that is able to navigate a simple message through the obsfucation of political enemies and a press that has come to believe that it knows what the people want.
In 1992 that was Bill Clinton. He offered America growth because he believed in people. He believed that people who "worked hard and played by the rules" deserved a place at the table of prosperity that "trickle down" economics would never deliver. He believed that Government should be a partner in not only helping ordinary Americans improve their standard of living, but their quality of life as well.
And we believed in him.
In fact, His support never seriously wavered, even amidst a republican takeover of the Congress, even amidst 6 years of scandal-mongering that ultimately found that his administration was cleanest since the Carter administration. Even amidst an Impeachment proceeding that will go down as one of the most embarrassing spectacles in US political history, that ultimately led to the downfall of his most bitter political rival of the era.
And yet, with all of these forces aligned against he succeeded. Ecnomic growth at all levels of income, budget surpluses, less crime, a stronger military, an optimism about the future not seen before or since. And always, the people stood behind him.
We can argue ad-nauseum about triangulation, impefect trade deals, wonkish incremental policies (school uniforms anyone)but we cannot argue that Bill Clinton left this country in much better shape than it was when he assumed the reigns of power. His policies created a platform for his successor to expand on his basic philisophy that government should work for the people.
Unfortunately the script got rewritten in the 2000 election. We will never know, or understand why Al Gore felt the need to distance himself from Mr Clinton, but we do know that it ultimately cost him the election. By keeping the most popular President since FDR at arms length he gave an election that was his for the taking to the most incompetent, and dangerous man ever to serve the office.
And the result? We find ourselves once again teetering on the edge of economic collapse. The script never changes.
There has been a lot of unfortunate attempts the tarnish the legacy of Bill Clinton in this Presidential season. The desire of many to re-write history in order to score political points is a disturbing trend. It is the sort of thing one expects from the other side. The general thought I suppose is that people have short memories, that the divisivness generated by Republicans and the atavistic press somehow passes for reality. This is dangerous thinking. It is a recipe for disaster in November.
I can understand why its happening. Hillary Clinton is attempting to win her party's nomination, and ultimately the office of President. The script never changes.
Once again we are bombarded by the press with negativity. She's not likeable, she's divisive, she's old, she wears pantsuits! She can't possibly win a general election, people remember the 90's, no one wants to go back there again. And then there's Barack Obama. "He's inspirational" he's "transformational" he looks good in a suit! He wants to bring us together, she wants to drive us further a part.
Republicans for their part assure us that they are licking their chops at the prospect of running against Hillary. Never mind that they can't seem to coalesce around a candidate of their own, or have to run on one of the sorriest records in American History. That they are chain-linked to one of the most corrupt, secretive, morally bankrupt administrations in our collective memory. A Hillary nomination will make people forget all of that?
Don't count on it.
I offer my endorsement today for the Candidacy of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hillary has worked 35 years for the people of this country. She has been a strong advocate for the rights of minorites, women and children. She has served with distinction in the US senate for the past seven years. She is articulate, knowledgeable, and brings a wealth of experience that is unsurpassed by any individual running for President in this cycle. She has been the target of some of the most vicious attacks in long memory.
And yet she endures.
She was left for dead after the Iowa caucus, and yet still remains a frontrunner for her parties nomination. This is no accident. She enjoys the support of the most important demographic in this election, rank and file Democrats, without whom no one can win.
Thee are many among us who realize that those who are set against her are powerful, and they will stop at nothing to deny the American people this great leader. But know this: our support is unwavering. We have seen this movie before, we are neither surprised or deterred. We will not be silent. We take personal the attacks on this great woman because we realize all too well that these are attacks on us as well. Hillary Clinton epitomises the soul of the democratic party, she is an advocate for the people who "work hard and play by the rules" that are left out of the discussion by pundits and candidates alike. She sees us, where they see only abstracts.
Barack Obama is an inspirational speaker who has managed to capture the nation's imagination, and has a brilliant future ahead of him. It is possible to believe that he will one day lead our nation, and I look forward to that day. But this is not his time. His inexperience in a time that will surely test the resolve and leadership of whomever assumes the office leaves too many questions unanswered. We cannot afford to have another President learning on the job, or worse, being controlled by powerful entities that wish to subvert the will of the people to suit their ends. While I believe that he is better than the Republican alternative, this year, at least, that will not be enough.
Our country is in trouble. We sit at the edge of recession, our military is fighting two wars and being destroyed in the process. Our healthcare system is failing us. Government spending is out of control. Government services are collapsing and our justice system has been politicized. Our civil liberties are being subverted in the name of security and our confidence is at an all time low. It will take a President who can marshal all of her powers and experience just to clean this mess up. This is not a year to gamble on hope.
Help us change the script. Help us remind those who would gladly subvert our will that we will not be denied the best America has to offer. Support Hillary Rodham Clinton
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